Anton Leicht on AI deployment, economic disruption and risk
Original excerpt
fundamentally, a lot of the catch-up mechanisms that lower-middle-income countries, in very general terms, have used and enjoyed and been able to leverage over the last few decades are just deeply incompatible with a world that has both very advanced AI systems and, downstream of that, ultimately much more automated manufacturing capacity.
Context
So let's talk about the rest of the world. You have this big report that just came out on transformative AI strategy for Europe, and there's been some discussion — I actually talked to one of your coauthors a bit back about the compute deficit that Europe has and the need to do something to be a live player going forward. But before we get into the strategy for what Europe should do — what's the worry if they do nothing? Because I also think whatever you think might happen to Europe if Europe stays the course is probably what happens to, like, 70%, maybe 80%, of the world's population by default. What does the future look like in your mind for Africa, Latin America, South Asia, etcetera? So the most immediate and obvious mechanism was always just to bet on the demographic differences — you had very rapid population growth, a fairly cheap workforce you'd be able to use to your comparative advantage, and then quickly bootstrap into hosting some foreign firms and exporting some valuable good into the global supply chain, predicated on the idea that you had this workforce you could put to use in a way that made you a comparatively beneficial country to conduct business activity in. And I just don't know whether that's going to remain the case. It's definitely not going to remain the case for most aspects of the menial services economy — I just don't see a stable way that that sector of the economy really exists once we have very powerful AI systems. There are definitely going to be new services jobs, human-preference jobs — you can think about all these labor-market effects in the long run. But this idea that you can just be immediately useful to global supply chains by do
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