nafyi.安东·莱希特谈AI部署、经济颠覆与风险
原始摘录
fundamentally, a lot of the catch-up mechanisms that lower-middle-income countries, in very general terms, have used and enjoyed and been able to leverage over the last few decades are just deeply incompatible with a world that has both very advanced AI systems and, downstream of that, ultimately much more automated manufacturing capacity.
翻译 · 非原文措辞
从根本上说，在过去几十年里，中下等收入国家普遍使用、受益并得以利用的许多追赶机制，在一个既拥有非常先进的AI系统、又由此最终拥有高度自动化制造能力的世界里，是完全不兼容的。
上下文
那么我们来谈谈世界其他地区。你刚发布了一份关于欧洲变革性AI战略的重要报告，此前也引发了一些讨论——我之前还曾与你们的一位合著者聊过欧洲面临的算力赤字问题，以及为确保未来持续参与竞争而需要采取的行动。但在深入探讨欧洲应如何制定战略之前——如果他们什么都不做，令人担忧的是什么？因为我也认为，无论你认为欧洲维持现状会面临什么，这可能就是全球约70%、也许是80%的人口默认会面临的处境。在你看来，非洲、拉丁美洲、南亚等地的未来图景是什么样的？一直以来最直接、最显见的机制就是押注人口结构差异——你有非常快的人口增长，有相当廉价的劳动力可以用来发挥比较优势，然后迅速启动，吸引一些外国企业入驻，向全球供应链出口一些有价值的商品，其前提是你拥有这样一支劳动力队伍，能以一种使你成为开展商业活动相对有利的国家的方式加以利用。而我只是不知道这种情况是否还会继续。对于低端服务经济的绝大多数方面，这肯定不会再继续了——一旦我们拥有非常强大的AI系统，我实在看不出该经济部门还能以何种稳定的方式存在。肯定会出现新的服务类工作，即人类偏好型工作——你可以从长远角度思考所有这些劳动力市场效应。但这种仅凭……就能立即对全球供应链有用的想法
原始上下文
So let's talk about the rest of the world. You have this big report that just came out on transformative AI strategy for Europe, and there's been some discussion — I actually talked to one of your coauthors a bit back about the compute deficit that Europe has and the need to do something to be a live player going forward. But before we get into the strategy for what Europe should do — what's the worry if they do nothing? Because I also think whatever you think might happen to Europe if Europe stays the course is probably what happens to, like, 70%, maybe 80%, of the world's population by default. What does the future look like in your mind for Africa, Latin America, South Asia, etcetera? So the most immediate and obvious mechanism was always just to bet on the demographic differences — you had very rapid population growth, a fairly cheap workforce you'd be able to use to your comparative advantage, and then quickly bootstrap into hosting some foreign firms and exporting some valuable good into the global supply chain, predicated on the idea that you had this workforce you could put to use in a way that made you a comparatively beneficial country to conduct business activity in. And I just don't know whether that's going to remain the case. It's definitely not going to remain the case for most aspects of the menial services economy — I just don't see a stable way that that sector of the economy really exists once we have very powerful AI systems. There are definitely going to be new services jobs, human-preference jobs — you can think about all these labor-market effects in the long run. But this idea that you can just be immediately useful to global supply chains by do
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