nafyi.安东·莱希特谈AI部署、经济颠覆与风险
原始摘录
I think it's integrating with proprietary data, integrating with proprietary workflows. Obviously not the entire task profile of humans is currently covered by models, but on specific tasks they're better than humans, and you can drop them into specific task profiles — at least in software engineering, and also in some other general white-collar activities. I think the question is just that the labor market takes its time to rearrange around that
翻译 · 非原文措辞
我认为是与专有数据集成，与专有工作流集成。显然，当前模型尚未覆盖人类的全部任务范畴，但在特定任务上它们优于人类，你可以把它们放入特定的任务环节——至少在软件工程中是这样，在其他一些通用白领活动中也是如此。我认为问题只是劳动力市场需要时间来围绕这一点重新调整。
上下文
一个更贴近现实的关切。我们之前谈过一些瓶颈——我指的不是人类因惯性而迟迟未能像理论上本可那样大规模采用AI的现象。但如果反过来只看AI及其能力，相较于雇佣真人完成工作的体验，显然缺失了某些东西，对吧？这种感觉一直越来越单薄——几乎到了我现在很难明确指出Fable 5.1或Astra究竟在哪些方面不如雇佣真人的地步。你能否解答：这种差距究竟是什么？还需要哪些额外的边际能力提升才能真正造成劳动力市场的颠覆？你认为在一个假设的世界里会发生什么：特斯拉决定授权其全自动驾驶系统，并且在大约18个月内——假设我们把它列为优先事项，所以这里有点虚构情景——但突然之间基本上所有汽车都能自动驾驶，而那大约四百万以此为生的美国人不再需要开车了。这似乎是一个非常清晰的替代故事，而且极有可能发生。你认为经济能吸纳这些人吗？他们去哪里？仔细想想真的很难——好吧，这个人开了25年卡车，还没到退休年龄，但卡车现在能自己开了。他会怎样？
原始上下文
A more terrestrial concern. We talked a bit about bottlenecks — I don't mean the human inertia around why adoption hasn't happened as much as it obviously could, in theory, have happened so far. But if you take the flip side of that and just look at the AIs and their capabilities, clearly there's something missing relative to the experience of hiring a human to do work, right? It feels thinner and thinner all the time — almost to the point where I'm now having a hard time putting my finger on what it is about Fable 5.1 or Astra that's actually worse than hiring a human. Do you have an answer for what that is, and what additional marginal capability gain you'd expect to actually create labor market disruption? What do you think would happen in a hypothetical world where Tesla decides to license its full self-driving, and within 18 months or so — let's say we make a priority of it, so we're into a bit of a fictional scenario here — but all of a sudden basically all the cars drive themselves, and the four or so million Americans who make their living driving aren't needed to drive anymore. That seems like a pretty clear displacement story that very well could happen. Do you think the economy can absorb those people? Where do they go? It seems really tough when you get down to it — okay, this guy's driven a truck for 25 years, he's not ready to retire, but the truck now drives itself. What happens to him?
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