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领导者如何设定优先级、评估不确定性并定义进展。

2 位人物 · 2 个来源 · 3 条观点

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2 位人物 · 2 个来源 · 3 条观点

Jensen Huang

出声推理让同事得以挑战中间步骤

黄仁勋表示,他在会议中会出声推理问题,以便同事能够挑战具体的推理步骤,而不仅仅是他的结论。他将由此产生的互动描述为一种集体的路径探索方法。

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原始摘录

The nice thing about reasoning through things and letting people interact with it is that they don’t have to disagree with your outcome. They can disagree with your reasoning steps. And they could pull me in different directions, and then we can reason forward.

翻译 · 非原文措辞

把事情推理出来并让人们与之互动的好处在于,他们不必反对你的结果。他们可以反对你的推理步骤。他们可能会把我拉向不同的方向,然后我们可以继续向前推理。

黄仁勋谈AI智能体安全、领导力与信任
上下文

当我错了——当我错了,或者结果并非如此,或者,你知道,我的意思是,我在外面说的大多数事情我都相当确定。原因在于那会影响到别人,我希望对此非常谨慎、非常周密。对于我在会议内部推理的事情,你知道,很多事情的结果可能会不同。所以,但这从不会阻止我去推理。我管理和领导的方式是,我不断在人们面前推理。甚至在我与你交谈时,你也能看到我在推理各种事情。我希望确保你理解我所说的话,不是因为是我告诉了你——是的,你有这样一种特质……当你解释事情时,我能感觉到你实际上是在当场对此进行推理,始终保持着开放的心态,你可以……我感觉我可以引导你的思考。这真的非常美好——在经历了这么多年的成功与痛苦之后,你仍能保持这一点。我认为有时候痛苦会让人有些封闭。而我认为要保持——

原始上下文

And when I’m wrong—when I’m wrong or it didn’t turn out that way or, you know, I mean, most of the things that I say outside I’m fairly certain about. And the reason for that is because it’s gonna impact somebody else and I want to be quite concerned about that and quite circumspect about that. For stuff that I’m reasoning about inside a meeting, you know, a lot of things could turn out differently. And so, but it doesn’t ever stop me from reasoning. The way that I manage and lead, I’m constantly reasoning in front of people. And even when I’m talking to you, you can kind of see me reasoning through things. And I want to make sure that you understand what I’m saying not because I told you- Yeah, you have this way about you of … When you’re explaining stuff, I can feel you actually reasoning on the spot about it with a constant open-mindedness where you could … I could feel like I could steer your thinking. And that’s a—that’s really beautiful that you’ve been able to maintain that after so many years of success, and pain. I think sometimes pain closes you down a bit. And I think to maintain-

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尽管有时会被利用,仍以信任为出发点

黄仁勋表示,他的出发点是对人类善意、慷慨以及助人意愿的信心。他承认自己有时会被利用,但表示这并未改变他的初始假设,而他认为这一假设屡次得到印证。

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原始摘录

I start with always that people want to do good. People want to help others. And vastly, I am proven right. Constantly proven right. And often it exceeds my expectations.

翻译 · 非原文措辞

我总是从这样一个前提出发:人们想要做好事。人们想要帮助他人。而在绝大多数情况下,我都被证明是对的。不断被证明是对的。而且往往超出我的预期。

黄仁勋谈AI智能体安全、领导力与信任
上下文

嗯,从一个粉丝的角度来看,鉴于你对文明产生了极其巨大的积极影响,当然,我希望你继续下去。但同时,看 NVIDIA 正在做的事情也很有趣,你知道。就是创新的速度。我非常热爱工程。NVIDIA 持续不断地完成着大量令人惊叹的工程工作。看着这一切很有趣。这是对人类的礼赞,对伟大建造者的礼赞,对伟大工程的礼赞。所以,它代表着某种特别的东西。所以我希望你和 NVIDIA 继续下去。关于我们正在进行的这一切,关于人类,关于人类的未来,什么给了你希望?当你向外看,当你相当多地思考未来,当你展望10年、20年、50年、100年之后,什么给了你希望?我们有太多想解决的问题。有太多我们想构建的东西。有那么多我们想做的好事,如今都在我们的能力范围之内,也在我的有生之年之内。你不可能不对此感到浪漫。你明白我的意思吗?哦——

原始上下文

Well, from a fan perspective, given your extremely enormous positive impact on civilization, of course, I hope you keep going. But also it’s just fun to watch what NVIDIA is doing, you know. It’s just the rate of innovation. And I’m a huge fan of engineering. There’s so much incredible engineering continuously being done by NVIDIA. It’s just fun to watch. It’s a celebration of humanity, a celebration of great builders, a celebration of great engineering. So, it represents something special. So I hope you and NVIDIA keep going. What gives you hope about this whole thing we got going on, about humanity, about the future of humanity? When you look out, when you think about the future quite a bit, when you look out 10, 20, 50, 100 years from now, what gives you hope? And that there’s so many things that we wanna solve. There’s so many problems we wanna solve. There’s so many things that we wanna build. There’s so many good things that we wanna do that are now within our reach, and within the reach of my lifetime. You just can’t possibly not be romantic about that. You know what I’m saying? O-

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Dario Amodei

能力外推表明强大AI可能于2026–2027年到来

非正式地外推近期人工智能能力提升趋势——从高中水平到本科水平再到博士水平——表明强大AI可能于2026年或2027年出现。然而,该预估仍具不确定性,因潜在干扰因素包括数据稀缺、集群缩放极限或地缘政治动荡等。

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原始摘录

if you just eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027. Again, lots of things could derail it. We could run out of data. We might not be able to scale clusters as much as we want.

翻译 · 非原文措辞

如果你仅凭肉眼观察这些能力提升的速度,的确会让你觉得我们将在2026年或2027年抵达这一阶段。再次强调,许多事情都可能使这一进程脱轨。我们可能耗尽数据;我们或许无法按预期规模扩展计算集群。

达里奥·阿莫代伊、阿曼达·阿斯克尔与克里斯·奥拉赫谈人工智能发展与安全
上下文

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这些是个人表达的观点,并非共识度量。原始资料保持其原始语言。