nafyi.安东·莱希特谈AI部署、经济颠覆与风险
原始摘录
I think there's a very reasonable doomer view that concentrates basically all of the probability mass of doom on things going well all the way until doom. If you look at a lot of the canonical doom scenarios — people who've talked seriously about existential and catastrophic risk — many of them describe a scenario where everything looks like it's going really well, strategically and economically great, until the point where the takeover happens
翻译 · 非原文措辞
我认为有一种非常合理的末日论观点，它基本上把末日的所有概率质量都集中在“一切进展顺利直到末日降临”这一情形上。如果你看看许多经典的末日情景——那些严肃讨论过生存性与灾难性风险的人——其中许多人描述的情景是：在战略和经济上一切看起来都非常好、非常出色，直到接管发生的那一刻。
上下文
是的——再次回到“走钢丝”这个比喻：这次对话非常精彩。最后来个快问快答怎么样？你提到了对冲，还提到在挪威主权财富基金的背景下，买入合适的股票以成功度过AI转型期。最近我一直在纠结的一个挑战是Tyler Cowen的挑战：如果你这么悲观，你的做空标的是什么？我一直在努力给出一个切实的答案——我不是彻底的末日论者，但我认为他应该比现在更严肃地对待这个问题。所以我希望得到的回答要么是“这是我的做空标的”，要么是“我真的试过了，但想不出任何东西”，而这正是我现在的状态——我想不出在末日情景中致富的方法。你有什么建议可以回答Tyler吗？我也认为许多人只是持有逻辑自洽的世界观，却并不据此下注——即使他们深信不疑，也不会进行金融押注。这是一个更无趣的元层面论点。但我的主要观点是，我不认为这是一个平滑的概率分布。我认为很多事情要么进展得非常顺利，要么变得非常糟糕，并没有多少世界是波动不定、先变糟一阵子再变好一阵子的。所以遗憾的是，我也没有好的交易策略。
原始上下文
Yeah — again, to talk about "threading the needle": this has been awesome. How about a little lightning round to close? You mentioned hedging, and also, in the context of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, buying the right equities to get through the AI transition successfully. A challenge I've been wrestling with lately is the Tyler Cowen challenge: if you're so doomer, what are your shorts? I've been trying to come up with an actual answer to that — I'm not a total doomer, but I think he should be taking it more seriously than he is. So I want an answer that's either "here are my shorts" or "I really tried and I can't come up with anything," and that's kind of where I'm at right now — I cannot come up with a way to get rich in the doom scenario. Do you have any suggestions to answer Tyler? I also think many people just have coherent worldviews that they don't bet on — they don't take financial bets even when they're committed to them. That's a more boring meta-contention. But my main view is that I don't think it's a smooth distribution of probabilities. I think a lot of this either goes very well or goes very badly, and there's not a lot of world where it's volatile and goes kind of badly for a while and then kind of well for a while. So, sadly, I don't have a good trading strategy either.
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