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Informally extrapolating recent AI capability improvements—from high school to undergraduate to PhD-level performance—suggests powerful AI could arrive by 2026 or 2027. However, this estimate remains uncertain due to potential derailments like data scarcity, cluster scaling limits, or geopolitical disruptions.
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Original excerpt
if you just eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027. Again, lots of things could derail it. We could run out of data. We might not be able to scale clusters as much as we want.
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nafyi.