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Research methods may have substantial room to improve

John Schulman suggests that clever small-scale experiments could support theories that generalize to larger experiments. He expects research methods to be far from their ceiling.

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AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement

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If you think hard enough, you probably could have expected some of these things beforehand. There is probably some very clever way to do a small-scale experiment that’ll let you build the theory that then will generalize to the large-scale experiment. So I would expect that we’re nowhere near the ceiling of how well you can do research

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